CBRE MARKET UPDATE Da Nang Q1/2012

Topics: Inflation, Monetary policy, Vietnam Pages: 39 (2430 words) Published: September 29, 2013
CBRE MARKET UPDATE

Da Nang Q1/2012
Presented by:

THAO LE
Da Nang Research
Opening Remarks from:

ADAM BURY
Senior Manager
CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd.
Friday, April 20th, 2012

TIEN CAO
Da Nang Research

OPENING WORDS
Da Nang 2012 – Continued
Signs of Growth

Hyatt Regency Da Nang

Da Nang International Airport

The Summit

Harmony Tower

All Pictures – Source: CBRE Vietnam. Date 19th April, 2012

2 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING

MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s DA NANG QUARTERLY UPDATES | APRIL 2012

VIETNAM ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Q1/2012 PERFORMANCE
3.5
3.0

Inflation surged

20

Monetary controls took effect

2.5

15

2.0

10

1.5

CPI (% m-o-m)

CPI (% y-o-y) / Interest rates (%)

25

CPI, VN (% y-o-y))
CPI, VN (% m-o-m)
Refinancing rate (%)
Rediscounting rate (%)

1.0
5
0
Jan-10

Monetary controls
on interest rates
Mar-10

May-10

Jul-10

Sep-10

Nov-10

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-11

0.5

0.0
Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

Q1/2012

Q4/2011

GDP (% y-o-y)

4%

6.1%

CPI (% y-o-y, e-o-p)

14.15%

18.13%

Exchange rate (e-o-p)

20,828

20,828

Export (US$ Bn)

24.52 (23.6% y-o-y)

26.23 (31.7% y-o-y)

Import (US$ Bn)

24.77 (6.9% y-o-y)

28.9 (23.4% y-o-y)

FDI Implemented (US$ Bn)

2.5 (-0.8% y-o-y)

2.8 (-5.1% y-o-y)

International Arrivals (million arrivals)

1.9 (24.5% y-o-y)

1.7 (29.3% y-o-y)

Retail and Services Turnover (trillion dong)

569.7 (21.8% y-o-y)

611.5 (47.2% y-o-y)

Source: General Statistics Office

3 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING

MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s DA NANG QUARTERLY UPDATES | APRIL 2012

VIETNAM ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
INFLATION

Time
9-Aug-10
24-Feb-11
29-Mar-11
26-Aug-11
29-Mar-12

A95
A92
Chg
Pct. Chg
16,900 16,400
410 2.56%
19,800 19,300 2,900 17.68%
21,800 21,300 2,000 10.36%
21,300 20,800
(500) -2.35%
23,400 22,900 2,100 10.10%

 Inflation continuing to trend down, possibility of
upward revisions remain;

 Petroleum prices increased 10.1% compared to
the previous adjustment, leaving more pressure
on CPI in the second quarter;
• March CPI recorded the lowest m-o-m
increase since January 2011 at 0.16% m-o-m,
(or 14.15% y-o-y).
• Bounce back in the stock market, in part a
reflection of decreasing inflation.

Stock Index and Inflation
550

3,000

700

600

VNIndex

1,500

400

1,000

350

500

300

0
4-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 29-Mar 26-Apr 24-May 21-Jun 19-Jul 16-Aug 13-Sep 11-Oct 8-Nov 6-Dec 3-Jan 31-Jan 28-Feb 27-Mar Trading value

VNIndex 2011

VNIndex

2,000

450

Trading Value (Billions VND)

2,500

500

25

20

500

15

400

10

300

5

200
Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09
VNIndex

CPI (%)

Petroleum Price Adjustments

0

Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10
CPI

Sep-10

Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11

Sep-11

Dec-11 Mar-12

VNIndex Q1/2012

4 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING

MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s DA NANG QUARTERLY UPDATES | APRIL 2012

VIETNAM ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
MONETARY CONTROLS
Base rate
Re-financing rate

Re-discounting rate

20

 Positive signs with the downward adjustments

15

of key interest rates.
• By 1% during the first quarter (March) –
refinancing adjusting to 14%, Rediscount
Rate to 12% and the deposit cap to 13%.

10
5
0
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

• A further 1% reduction to each measure
was announced in the second week of April.

 Lower interest rate mortgage loans still scarce
• Still only limited signs of commercial loans
being reduced to reflect the revised interest
rates. Slight decreases of approx. 0.5% in
the beginning of 2012.
• 20% - 25% for non-productive sector and
16.5% - 20% for productive sector (SBV).

 More stable USD/VND exchange rate, strict
controls on USD/gold trading remain.
5 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING

MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s DA NANG QUARTERLY UPDATES | APRIL...
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