NTI Digest, March, 2010
Dr. Hayao Nakahara
N.T. Information Ltd
2009 was one of the worst recessionary years since the end of World War II. Subprime problem in the US, which looked innocent to most other countries, spread quickly throughout the world like a contagious disease, particularly after the fall of Lehman Brothers in September of 2008. China was the only major country that was spared from this terrible recession, but because of its excessive stimulus programs, there are fears of inflation and rising wages. Its outcome is yet to be seen.
Certain areas of electronics industry, such as Flat Panel TV (FPTV), Cell Phones (CP) and Personal Computers (PC), did not do too badly in 2009 despite the recession, at least in terms of the number of shipment although considerably down when measured in revenue.
We shall analyze the outcome of our electronics industry during the recessionary year of 2009 and attempt to forecast for the near future.
As mentioned already, the only major country which was spared from the recession in 2009 was China. Without positive growth of China’s economy, the world economy would have been a total disaster.
Minus 2.1% reduction of world GDP in 2009 may sound very small, but its effect on the production of electronic equipment is not so small. The world electronic production fell $160 billion in 2009. Since about 3.2% of electronic products is considered to be PCB contents on the average, this translates into about $5.1 billion decrease of PCB production in 2009.
Electronic Equipment Shipment
The following table is this author’s assessment of PCB shipment in 2009 and forecast in the near future:
The decrease of PCB shipment from 2008 to 2009 was about $5.7 billion, which is in fair agreement of the previous estimate of $5.1 billion (see Page 1). The average selling price of mass-produced PCB is said to have been between 5 and 10% for regular PTH boards and between 10 and 15% for HDI products. So, considering these price erosions, the difference is within tolerable range.
PCB shipment is expected to increase in 2010 and continue its recovery into 2011 and beyond for at least several more years, hopefully. The table below shows PCB output from the viewpoint of consumption by product category with forecast to 2013.
Not too surprisingly, the PCB usage by CCC (Computer, Communication & Consumer) accounts for 70% of all PCB shipped.
China will continue to lead the world. Its production in 2011 is expected to be twice that in Japan (domestic production only).
(N.T. Information Ltd)
However, if one counts output by PCB makers of different nationality, Japan and Taiwan dominate the world output. If domestic and overseas productions are considered, the output of these two countries accounts for about 60% of the total world output. Both are expected to have “total” PCB output of about $14 to $15 billion in 2010.
The title of this paper is “Production and Market”. Unfortunately, it is beyond this author’s ability to figure out the market size in each region. For example, many US based electronic equipment “manufacturing” companies have no production sites. Their products are manufactured by EMS providers (Foxconn, Flextronics, Jabil, Sanmina-SCI, to name a few) and their plants are scattered around the globe, which makes it impossible for this author to trace PCB consumptions, which constitute “market”.
The only possible assessment of PCB market is by product category (see Tables in Pages 3 and 4).
Near Term Outlook of Electronic Products
The following table was made from various data available from Gartner, IDC, etc. Digital still cameras, FPTVs, CPs, PCs and HDD are major mass production items which will have healthy growth in 2010. In fact, the growth may be seen all across various products in 2010 and it will be even higher in 2011....
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